Published on May 17th, 2013
What will IPv4 addresses be worth a year from now?
Our team here at IPv4 Market Group does not have a crystal ball that can predict the future, but we have done our due diligence with IP address research, and there are some key indicators pointing to the value of IPv4 addresses.
As a leading IPv4 Broker exposed to market prices, we think a good solid offer in the $8.50 to $10 per IP range for a /16, is a bird in the hand.
We believe that demand as of May, 2013 has been less than expected, but there are a few possible explanations for this. There is some evidence of stockpiling, as we have not seen buying of IPV4 addresses from countries such as South Korea or China materialize, in spite of the fact that they are the number 3 and number 1 IPv4 address users respectively in APNIC. The stockpiling has kept demand from APNIC quieter than expected, to date. IPv4 Market Group believes that in another six months, ARIN will have ran out of free IP’s, and stockpiles in Asia and Europe should have run lower, causing further IPV4 exhaustion, which will ultimately lead to a price increase.
However, how many /8’s will come to market from private or other sources? How fast will be the conversion to IPv6? How prepared are companies to throw Carrier Grade NAT at the problem, rather than additional IPv4 numbers?
We have heard many companies in the poorer countries of the world tell us they can pay no more than $2-3 per IP. If ¾ of the world’s population lives in these countries, this should keep a lid on the demand. This then should keep the supply demand equilibrium at a steady price of $9-11 per IP for blocks of /16 in size for the next year.
Perhaps in five years we will see brokers selling ipv4 addresses for $15 to $20 for a /16, but is it worth the wait?
A stock advisor would tell an investor to think about dollar cost averaging. Similarly, we think an investor who is considering selling IPV4 addresses should take the bird in the hand as Plan A and should consider dollar cost averaging as Plan B.
- By Sandra Brown